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From the beginning."
- ELP




Today marks another birthday for Air Chicky (22nd)...and anniversary for Isabel (5th). So I got a bit birthday-anniversary nostalgic last nite at work when gazing up (steady now) at our 'Cane wall of our county fame. So doug write up an archived historical list of GC ramblings for your you and I were 5 years ago younger birthday-anniversary party forum-rum enjoyment. And Yo, Air Chicky...I know with the kind of easy-listening music you enjoy, that it's gonna be really super difficult hard to go to that Air Force "mandatory" Charlie Daniels concert on Biloxi base Saturday. Hopefully the "mandatory" 3 beers they make you drink will help to lull you nicely (hey, they were awesome when I sawem in '75) into that CDB "old school" southern rock sound.





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*From "A Boy Named Isabel" post, 9/12/03*...(and can-it-tory son, they don't 2mb hand draw surface map it 1st the old school Navy-way any inn the models are all god and that and more-more)

MARINE...BUSY MORNING WITH CALLS/VISITATIONS REGARDING FUTURISTIC PROGNOSTICATIONS OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ISABEL. FOR THE HERE AND NOW ANYWAY...2MB HAND-DRAWN SURFACE MAP DEPICTS 1008MB LOW (REMNANTS OF HENRI) ABOUT 100 MILES E OF FPSN7 BUOY. THE LOW FINALLY PULLS NW AND TOWARD THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG THE OBX SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS NW AND LOSES IT'S CHARACTERISTICS/DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY. SCA FLAGS TO REMAIN FLYING TODAY ALONG ENTIRE CWFA DUE TO BRISK N TO NE FLOW AND LARGE SEAS/CHOPPY SOUND WATERS...NOT TO MENTION HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT. SURF CAMS/LOCAL SPOTTERS REPORTING 5-7 FT WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE OBX (A BIT MORE TEXTURIZED AND A TAD SMALLER NEAR FRISCO)...WHILE THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF THE CRYSTAL COAST REMAIN STUCK IN THE 1-2 FT MODE DUE TO THE BRISK "OFFSHORE" WIND CONTENT.

ALL THIS AND THAT DUE TO CHANGE (ON THE MUCH BIGGER END OF THE WAVE HEIGHT SPECTRUM) IN THE COMING DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK. P-GRAD LOOSENS UP DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AS THE ABOVE LOW TRAVERSES OVER OBX...BUT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL WITH THE NE SWELL (SOON TO BE REPLACED BY ISABEL E TO SE SWELL) EFFECTS.

SPEAKING OF THE 160G190MPH LADY...ISABEL'S LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER SWELL ENERGY HAS ALREADY MADE INROADS TO OUR OUTER CWFA PERIPHERY. A TESTIMONY TO THE STELLAR HURRICANE VERSION OF NOAA WAVE WATCH III WHICH DAYS AGO PEGGED ISABEL'S DISTANT SWELL ENERGY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON 9/12/03. AS IS USUAL IN THESE RARE EVENTS (SEE SOUTH AMERICA/AFRICA 8/2002 17-20 SECOND LONG PERIOD SWELL) REGISTERED 3.3 TO 3.9 FT/16.7 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS AT 1 AM LAST NIGHT. 17 SECOND PERIODS BEGINNING TO KICK IN STRONG AT THE PAN AS OF THIS WRITING. EMERALD ISLE FIRE DEPT HAS BEEN NOTIFIED THIS MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING INTO EFFECT ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ISABEL'S LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY TO THE COAST...NOT TO MENTION BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS IN AND AROUND INLETS AND SURF ZONES.

SPEAKING OF RARE CATEGORY 5 EVENTS...NOAA WAVE WATCH III FORECASTS 30 FT SEAS EVERY 12 SECONDS ROLLING UNDER (HOPEFULLY NOT OVER) BUOY 41001 (150NM E OF HATTERAS) THURSDAY EVENING.

GC





*From "h=48 ft / p= 16 sec" post, 9/13/03*

.MARINE...ACCORDING TO THE WORLD OF MSAS...THE CONTINUING SAGA AND REMNANTS OF WHAT ONCE WAS TS HENRI ARE NOW BUT A 1015MB MEMORY LOW PRESSURE AREA SITUATED OVER SE VA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NW THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING E BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORMIDABLE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED A FEW TICKS E OF CAPE COD WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE E TUESDAY. LONG DISTANT/13-15 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY HAS ALREADY LIGHTING UP ALL MOORED OFFSHORE NC BUOYS'S FOR SOME 24 HRS. IN FACT...ISABEL'S 3-4 FT/17 SECOND LONG PERIOD FORERUNNER'S SWEPT THRU YESTERDAY BUT WERE SOMEWHAT MASKED DUE TO THE DAY'S ON END STRONG NE FLOW-FETCH-BACKSWELL FROM A COMBO FABIAN/STRONG HIGH/ HENRI SCENARIO.

PRESENT SEAS/SOUND WATERS/WINDS AS WELL AS WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HAVE COME DOWN A NOTCH TODAY FROM FORMER DAYS PAST WITH THE PASSAGE N OF THE LOW. SURF CAM'S/LOCAL SPOTTERS REPORTING TEXTURIZED 4-6 FT WAVES IN THE SURF ALONG THE OBX...AND 2-3 FT FOR SOUTH FACING CRYSTAL COAST BEACHES. LATEST FERRY OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE SOUNDS REPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE W WITH 1 FT WAVES. A FAR CRY FROM THE 4-5 FOOTERS REPORTED A FEW DAYS AGO WITH THE STRONG NE FLOW.

FLAGS FOR THE SOUNDS WILL BE TUCKED NEATLY AWAY DUE TO THE NON-EXISTENT P-GRAD...BUT SCA'S STAY UP FOR THE NORTHERN LEG DUE TO RESIDUAL/DAY-AFTER NE SWELL EFFECT. MARINE GRIDS ADJUSTED A NOTCH UPWARD IN THE SEA HEIGHT DEPARTMENT (EXCLUDING SOUNDS) FOR TODAY THRU MONDAY FORECAST CYCLE PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GRANTED...06Z NWW3 HAS TWEAKED NUMBERS DOWNWARD FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF STELLAR NO-LOWER-THAN-SCEC CONTINUITY. SORRY...JUST NOT READY TO BUY INTO SUCH A SPIRAL DOWNWARD OF OPEN ATLANTIC SEA HEIGHT REAL ESTATE FOOTAGE VALUES WITH ISABEL'S EASTERLY SWELL TRAJECTORY PERMEATING CURRENTLY THRU CWFA. AFTERALL...NWW3 (HURRICANE VERSION ANYWAY) PROGGED ISABEL'S FORERUNNER SWELLS TO ARRIVE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THEY MADE THE SCENE AT FPSN7 BUOY 2 NIGHTS AGO IN THE 3-4 FT CATEGORY! NOT TO WORRY...THE BITE IS NOT BAD AS THE BARK. JUST DID A "COMPROMISE" AND ONLY ADJUSTED IT UP A FOOT FOR AFORMENTIONED TIME FRAME.

SPEAKING OF NOAA WAVE WATCH III MODEL OUTPUT...BY THURSDAY EVENING NWW3 FORECASTING BUOY 41001 (150NM E OF HATTERAS) TO GET TO 48 FEET WITH 16 SECOND LONG PERIOD 130 DEGREE SWELL ANGLE INTERVALS. SOMEWHAT REMINISCENT OF PACIFIC OCEAN ALEUTIAN LOW PRESSURE POWER.

GC





*From "Happy Birthday Chicky" post (and arrival of Isabel), 9/18/03*